NDVA (+4.2%) lifts Nasdaq Monday but the markets were soft with a broad retreat (75%) on low volumes

The US Indexes were mixed on Monday, the Nasdaq was helped by the Mag7 outperformance, specifically NVDA. The riskier assets retreated slightly after the recent strong run although nuclear and clean tech remained strong. Micro cap has outperformed the wider market by 1.3% over the last five days. The VIX was up 1 at 19. The main indexes were; DJIA -0.80%, S&P 500 -0.18%% and Nasdaq +0.27% (Mag7 +0.61%). On an equal weighted basis (our measure) the overall market was -0.86%. Breadth was very weak at 25% (range of 12% to 88% over the last six weeks) volumes were weak at 7.3b (the average daily volume over the last year of 8b). 

One day returns as follows - equal weight basis: Mag7 +0.61% (NVDA +4.1%, AAPL +0.6%, TSLA -0.8%), large cap -0.68%, medium cap -1.07%, small cap -1.43% and micro cap -0.51%.

On a 1 and 2 week equal weight basis respectively; Market +1% and +2.4%, Mag7 +0.5% and +2.3%, Large caps -0.5% and +1.3%, Medium cap -0.5% and +1.5%, Small cap +0.3% and +2.2% and finally Micro cap +2.3% and +3.0%. 

Our risk monitor remains in favour of the larger cap stock but Micro has now outperformed the market on both a 1w an 2w period. However, both Small and Micro stocks have proved far more volatile than the Large and Medium cap stocks over the last eight weeks.

Surprisingly the sector bias marginally favored the Bull sectors on Monday. Only Utilities were positive on Monday driven by continued strong performance in Electric Utilities, specifically; nuclear (Nano Nuclear (NNE) +34%, Oklo Inc (OKLO) +22% and Nuscale Power (SMR) +4%) and clean tech (Eco Wave Power (WAVE) +12.7%, Net Power (NPWR) +9.3% and Brookfield Renewable (BEPC) +4.3%). Gold (+1.1%) and Silver (+0.9%) stocks were strong again helping Basic Materials to outperform the market. Construction (+1%) helped Industrials outperform. Healthcare was surprising strong (relative) on Monday with Biotech the best performer. The sector has outperformed the market over the last 2 weeks by 2.5%. This sector is -1.8% over the last three months but when it runs it runs very aggressively - it was +55% from mid Nov23 to Feb24. Too early to say the is the start of another run but it is worth watching. Tech outperformed on Monday, Blockchain continues to seesaw and was weak but IT Services & Consulting (-0.16%) and Phones & Handheld devices (+1.8%) helped the sector performance.

A notable number of 52 week highs in virtually all sectors ex Energy: Basic Materials (Gold and Silver), Consumer Cyclicals (Hotels & Entertaining and Media have both been strong recently), Industrials was strong again (across the sector ex Transport) and Technology (Software & IT Services and Technology Equipment again). Just to repeat but most of the sectors and industries mentioned have been strong for a number of days.

Notable high volumes in Basic Materials (Gold, Silver. Iron and Steel), Industrials (across the sector) and Technology (Software & IT Services again)